I've noticed an alarming pattern with UFC champions lately which has shown me how to see the most credible challengers to your champion's thrones. Especially those of arguably the two most dominant champions at least in terms of reign length and number of defenses Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre. When looking ar our current champions and their rise to belt one can easily notice a pattern with these great fighters that I've never heard discussed. Sans Anderson Silva (who let's be honest is in a category on his own) all of the current UFC champions have 2 or less loses on their record. Now this is not a purely numerical coincidence this points to something else very critical in these fighters careers. None of these current champions has faced much resistance in their path to the belt. They all rose pretty rapidly and 4 of the 8 male champions have defended their belt 4 or more times. I would consider 4 or more defenses fairly dominant reigns. This is the era of the prodigy.
UFC's current roster of champions rose meteorically got the belt and held on tight. Looking at these patterns you can discern who the next champions to fall will be based on the current look of their weight divisions and the challengers who will be coming for their belts. This is not an era where the Clay Guidas, Chael Sonnens, and Vitor Belforts get the belt. Looking at our challengers it will not be the veteran who has had a career of ups and downs no matter how legendary it was who becomes champ. It's the time where the dominant new kids on the block take over. With that you can see that the champions with these types of guys moving up the rankings of their weight classes are in danger. The champions most likely to next lose their belts are none other than Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva. Read on.
Cain Velasquez will not have any problems defending his belt against Big Foot Silva this saturday. Cain is a prodigy with very little setbacks on his way to the belt Big Foot on the other hand has had some ups and downs (though only 4) and has lost to champion himself. Heavyweight is also the hardest weight class to ever predict so this prodigy vs. veteran system has the least merit here.
Jon Jones is the most likely to remain champion. Looking at the weight class there are a lot of top ten veterans Hendo, Evans, and Machida come to mind. None of them will get the belt in fact the only challenger here who fits the prodigious pattern is Alexander Gustafsson. Though I don't see Gustafsson getting and believe he lacks the proper skill set I see him most likely however unlikely it is.
Anderson shouldn't feel too safe on his high horse right now. While he wasn't necessarily a prodigy with 4 loses and an almost ten year path to the UFC belt he is a phenom. Thus it will take a prodigy to de throne him. Enter Chris Weidman your next middleweight champion, your savior. If he doesn't do it no one else in the foreseeable future will. His 6 year no loss career thus far has been amazing to watch. It consisted of a rapid rise to his title shot in which he knocked out Mark Munoz with a perfectly timed elbow, Unanimously defeated Demian Maia on 11 days notice, and submitted Tom Lawlor. With his wrestling pedigree, improved striking, and age advantage he is the most likely new heir the MW crown. Even if he does lose to Silva in July I could see him taking a path a kin to Cain Velasquez and winning a rematch for the belt.
GSP is also in the path of the tornado. Because of his lengthy title reign and upset loss to Serra people forget just how much of a prodigy GSP was. He only has two loses on his record both to former champions and won the belt after only four years of MMA. With that I believe GSP is the most likely of all the champions to lose his belt for two reasons. Reason 1. Johny Hendricks has only one loss on his record and makes a very loud statement every time he fights. Hendricks has quickly dismantled the best of the best in the WW division and has the perfect skill set to face GSP. I've never heard the word prodigy used to describe Hendricks but his one loss record and the top level of competition he's beaten say that he is without a doubt a prodigy. He is also very likely your next WW champion. Don't forget reason number 2 Rory MacDonald is also coming down the pipe making GSP deal with a double threat even if they say they won't fight. Both of these guys perfectly fit the mold of champion and are well seated to take the belt.
Ben Henderson one of the most secure champions right next to Jones. Though most might disagree since his close battle with Gilbert Melendez. He has no prodigy challengers as of yet. While lightweight is a very competitive weight class and all of the current top ten LW's are good fighters none are prodigies and most would be considered veterans. This is fitting as Henderson's reign is still young being one of the four champions with less than four defenses. I see no foreseeable threat to Hendersons belt.
Jose Aldo is also a lock to keep his belt. While I think Pettis is a formidable foe and also could be considered a prodigy, 145 is not his natural weight class and bigger isn't always better. His switching weight classes takes him out of this theory as he is a prodigy at LW not Feather and when looking at all other 145 contenders none is a real threat to take the belt.
Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao are both currently injured but they both fit the mold of prodigy and are young and very dominant. They are both the most likely to de throne the other but I give Barao the slight advantage as he fits the theme of the up and coming prodigy while Cruz is possibly at the end of his reign. That being said if Barao doesn't unify the belt, Cruz will be champ for a long time coming and has no other suitable challengers.
Demetrious Johnson is a very young champion who also fits the mold of being a prodigy. With only two losses on his record and one title defense his performances have been pretty impressive. He also is fighting in a very young division in the UFC. The divisions age will work against the champ as there are actually a few prodigious prospects in his weight class. He has plenty of young threats coming at him so it is coin toss as to if he will join the ranks of the dominant champions or fall early in his title reign.
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